Big solar radiation storm heading our way

5.7k · January 24, 2012

Just saw a blurb on the news, got more information from NOAA's website.

2012-01-23 07:02 Largest Solar Radiation Storm Since 2005 in Progress

The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth. Geomagnetic storming is a near certainty from this event, pending preliminary analysis no estimates are available yet for timing or strength of the storm. The associated solar flare peaked at the R2 (Moderate) level on January 23 at 0400 GMT (11pm Jan 22 EST). Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

2012-01-23 22:43 The Radiation Storm Continues...

The radiation storm that began early this morning has continued to rise very slowly throughout the day but has remained at the S3 (Strong) level. It should be at or near its peak and is expected to begin to decrease soon. We are still awaiting the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection which is still expected at about 9am EST (1400 GMT) on Tuesday. The SWPC forecast is for Moderate (G2) level geomagnetic storming with G3 levels possible. An animation from the WSA-Enlil model showing the Coronal Mass Ejection and its trip from the Sun to the Earth is available here. Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

So FYI, if you're planning on hiding or seeking a cache today, be prepared to see some odd results on your GPSr. (And please share here if you do!)

10.2k · January 24, 2012

I had heard about it, but only in regards to the fact I may get to see The Aurora Borealis for what I believe would be only the 3rd time in my life at North 43 Degrees. No seeking or especially hiding here, although I'm going out for a lunch hour cache or two on Wednesday.

5.7k · January 24, 2012

Ham radio operators also take advantage of solar flares for long distance communication. Trinidad and Tabogo sounded like they bought real estate in Tennessee this morning before the sun came up. :laughing:

8.4k · January 24, 2012

Ham radio operators also take advantage of solar flares for long distance communication. Trinidad and Tabogo sounded like they bought real estate in Tennessee this morning before the sun came up.

Maybe you'll be able to talk to the past during the storm. :laughing:

5.7k · January 24, 2012

Ham radio operators also take advantage of solar flares for long distance communication. Trinidad and Tabogo sounded like they bought real estate in Tennessee this morning before the sun came up.

Maybe you'll be able to talk to the past during the storm.

I suspect that you are joking, but there are radio transmissions still bouncing around that can be picked up on the air waves. I've been accused of "Ghost talking" before on the 10 meter band because I can hear and communicate with other stations that local users can't. It all has to do with location and type of antenna system. And I have a antenna farm. :laughing:

2.4k · January 25, 2012

I keep hearing "A High Latitude Auroral Activity Warning is Active" coming from one of the computers...shame it's not including the middle latitudes and is cloudy and raining like stink here. We'd be having quite the display of the Northern Lights.

At the peak of the last solar cycle we could tell by the sounds on the short wave radio that things were happening up in the heavens.

3.1k · January 25, 2012

No apparent interference here in MN today/tonight. Also, too many clouds to see anything.

Not the case, however, for Finland! :antenna:

Edit to add: If you like knowing what's up in the sky, visit spaceweather.com. Pretty neat stuff, and alerts can be found there.

Edited January 25, 2012 by NeverSummer

3.3k · January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

January 25, 2012

I work on a radio telescope that operates in the low frequencies in the Netherlands called LOFAR, where "low" for us is around the same place as the FM band (but not actually there, too much interference). We're in the middle of a survey right now but the second we heard about this flare we said "screw it" and gave the controls over to the group that does solar observations cause there's nothing much else to be done in astronomy when a flare like this hits!

But hey, gives me time to check out the forums cause not much is going on I guess. :anibad:

January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

I think saying it's the first solar maximum of the GPS age is a bit disingenuous as it's not like the military wasn't using GPS for years beforehand, so there's surely some science from the past on what it does. How much the military wants to share is another question.

Plus to be fair there's also plenty of info out there on how solar flares effect satellite communications, of which GPS is a subset. Though honestly what should worry folks more is the potential for a big blackout in the power grid from a large flare, which has happened a few times in the past...

2.6k · January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

What???

GPS has been around since the 70's.

2.6k · January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

I think saying it's the first solar maximum of the GPS age is a bit disingenuous as it's not like the military wasn't using GPS for years beforehand, so there's surely some science from the past on what it does. How much the military wants to share is another question.

Plus to be fair there's also plenty of info out there on how solar flares effect satellite communications, of which GPS is a subset. Though honestly what should worry folks more is the potential for a big blackout in the power grid from a large flare, which has happened a few times in the past...

Exactly

3.3k · January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

I think saying it's the first solar maximum of the GPS age is a bit disingenuous as it's not like the military wasn't using GPS for years beforehand, so there's surely some science from the past on what it does. How much the military wants to share is another question.

Plus to be fair there's also plenty of info out there on how solar flares effect satellite communications, of which GPS is a subset. Though honestly what should worry folks more is the potential for a big blackout in the power grid from a large flare, which has happened a few times in the past...

Saying it's the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age in not "disingenuouis". In fact it is the first solar maximum since 2000/2001. Although Selective Availability was removed in 2000, I don't think the "modern" GPS age really got underway until a couple of years later. Mmass adoption of commercial GPSr units didn't happen for a couple of year, WAAS was not generally available until 2003, and not common in commercial grade GPSr units until 2006.

"How much the military wants to share..."? They won't, so it is really kind of irrelevant to our discussion on this forum.

As for the "communications, of which GPS is a subset" statement, that is only part of the issue. The direct RF/microwave interference could potentially reduce the signal to noise ratio seen by your GPS receiver. This would have a adverse result on your GPSr. I do not know what the effect would be; slower lock, fewer satellites tracked, or something else? But additionally to this is the issue of the sudden variations in the density of the ionosphere. According to Wikipedia, this will result in scintillation of the GPS signals (like twinkling of a star), resulting in errors in location calculations.

Back to my original point. All of this said, how much of an effect will it have on a geocacher as a solar storm hits our atmosphere? I have no idea. But I have asked the question on this forum after a few solar storms, and no one reported issues. So hopefully the answer is "negligible".

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

What???

GPS has been around since the 70's.

Just to clarify, by "Modern GPS age" I am referring to the mass availability of commercial GPSr units, the removal of Selective Availability, and the introduction of WAAS/EGNOS. If you can give me some data on how solar maximum will effect GPS accuracy based on usage from dates you are stating, great, otherwise my previous statement stands.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Andronicus

2.6k · January 25, 2012

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

I think saying it's the first solar maximum of the GPS age is a bit disingenuous as it's not like the military wasn't using GPS for years beforehand, so there's surely some science from the past on what it does. How much the military wants to share is another question.

Plus to be fair there's also plenty of info out there on how solar flares effect satellite communications, of which GPS is a subset. Though honestly what should worry folks more is the potential for a big blackout in the power grid from a large flare, which has happened a few times in the past...

Saying it's the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age in not "disingenuouis". In fact it is the first solar maximum since 2000/2001. Although Selective Availability was removed in 2000, I don't think the "modern" GPS age really got underway until a couple of years later. Mmass adoption of commercial GPSr units didn't happen for a couple of year, WAAS was not generally available until 2003, and not common in commercial grade GPSr units until 2006.

"How much the military wants to share..."? They won't, so it is really kind of irrelevant to our discussion on this forum.

As for the "communications, of which GPS is a subset" statement, that is only part of the issue. The direct RF/microwave interference could potentially reduce the signal to noise ratio seen by your GPS receiver. This would have a adverse result on your GPSr. I do not know what the effect would be; slower lock, fewer satellites tracked, or something else? But additionally to this is the issue of the sudden variations in the density of the ionosphere. According to Wikipedia, this will result in scintillation of the GPS signals (like twinkling of a star), resulting in errors in location calculations.

Back to my original point. All of this said, how much of an effect will it have on a geocacher as a solar storm hits our atmosphere? I have no idea. But I have asked the question on this forum after a few solar storms, and no one reported issues. So hopefully the answer is "negligible".

We are approaching the solar maximum, so these will continue to get more common for the next year (or two?) There are predictions, but no one really knows when the solar maximum will be. That said, NASA finally got a grip on reality, and is now predicting this to be the quietest solar maximum of the space age (previously NASA was predicting this to be the highest maximum of the space age). It also happens to be the first solar maximum of the modern GPS age (the last solar maximum was 2000 and 2001), so no one is really sure how this will effect GPS accuracy. So far, from looking on these forums, these solar storms do not seem to be causing noticeable loss of accuracy.

What???

GPS has been around since the 70's.

Just to clarify, by "Modern GPS age" I am referring to the mass availability of commercial GPSr units, the removal of Selective Availability, and the introduction of WAAS/EGNOS. If you can give me some data on how solar maximum will effect GPS accuracy based on usage from dates you are stating, great, otherwise my previous statement stands.

I was using a modern GPS accurate to whitin +/- 2m in the 80's

They have been there for a long time. Cilvians just dind't have them.

2.6k · January 25, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. <_< You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

5.7k · January 25, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

3.3k · January 25, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

Just to clarify, those are illegal, and can get you in jail for 1 year. Even possessing them or importing them.

Anyway, the add is funny. Wind slots? Wow.

2.6k · January 26, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

:laughing:

It was just wee bit bigger and better than that. :laughing:

Edit: This was a 3 man pack broad range Command and Control Countermeasure system. It had more broadcast power than many radio stations do.

Edited January 26, 2012 by Totem Clan

7.3k · January 26, 2012

Depending on how heavy the coverage is, you can still sometimes see the Aurora borealis in the clouds. At least I did once when I was a kid. It wasn't as spectacular at all, but I could see the colour.

2.6k · January 26, 2012

Depending on how heavy the coverage is, you can still sometimes see the Aurora borealis in the clouds. At least I did once when I was a kid. It wasn't as spectacular at all, but I could see the colour.

Just went out and checked. Nothing here yet. Last night was too cloudy.

I'll keep checking.

2.7k · January 26, 2012

Just saw a blurb on the news, got more information from NOAA's website.

2012-01-23 07:02 Largest Solar Radiation Storm Since 2005 in Progress

The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth. Geomagnetic storming is a near certainty from this event, pending preliminary analysis no estimates are available yet for timing or strength of the storm. The associated solar flare peaked at the R2 (Moderate) level on January 23 at 0400 GMT (11pm Jan 22 EST). Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

[snip]

In 2005 the last Solar maximum was just wrapping up so almost any Solar activity at all can carry the claim of strongest Solar Radiation Storm since 2005.

Edited January 26, 2012 by Glenn

5.7k · January 26, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

It was just wee bit bigger and better than that.

Edit: This was a 3 man pack broad range Command and Control Countermeasure system. It had more broadcast power than many radio stations do.

Oh yes, these little jammers are rinkey-dink. But a good tech can modify them somewhat to extend the range. They are just a pain in the butt device to bother people with. I'm a radio operator that went legal, but before that I was a 11 Meter Outlaw with a 2K mobile export radio. I used a Galaxy 99 with a Texas Star Sweet 16 and a homemade 5/8 wave antenna. I talked when I wanted and bled all over the 11 meter band while shooting skip. That was back in the day before we had cable TV, so I had to wait before brodcasting, still I came in on answering machines that were not properly grounded. I had quite a big fan club, but the FCC seems to have disbanded long ago.

When we assulted Granada it was top secret, but a hamster broadcast our mission that they were being invaded by US troops. That tower went down quickly with a KIA or two.

3.6k · January 26, 2012

Luckily I won't worry too much about it. My GPS is on vacation visiting Garmin,for the 4th time.

Maybe instead of sending me a reburbed 60CSX they could send me a refurbed 62!? :rolleyes:

14k · January 26, 2012

BTW the biggest disruption I've ever seen was when one of my troops accidently turned on some of our eletronic jamming equipment without knowing it during a training exerise at Ft Iwrin. All freqs were open so it jammed all the radios on the post plus CHP's car to car and car to base radio for a large part of Southern Californa and other comms in the area also. It only took 5 minutes or so to figure what had happened but during that time the GPS that we had showed us being about 100 miles of coast of Alaska then blacked out. We were the only one that reported a problem with GPS, but then we were only feet from the jammer.

I got my a** chewed by the Col. for that one. You can believe that the Pvt that flipped the switch is still walking funny after I was done with him. It rolls downhill.

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

It was just wee bit bigger and better than that.

Edit: This was a 3 man pack broad range Command and Control Countermeasure system. It had more broadcast power than many radio stations do.

Oh yes, these little jammers are rinkey-dink. But a good tech can modify them somewhat to extend the range. They are just a pain in the butt device to bother people with. I'm a radio operator that went legal, but before that I was a 11 Meter Outlaw with a 2K mobile export radio. I used a Galaxy 99 with a Texas Star Sweet 16 and a homemade 5/8 wave antenna. I talked when I wanted and bled all over the 11 meter band while shooting skip.

I did the same thing but was not quite the outlaw. I had an inexpensive 23 channel crystal controlled SSB radio that I modified by adding crystals to extend about 25Mhz above the legal 11 meter band. I was able to get a few more watts out of it so that it peaked at about 16 watts on SSB, and even though I had an Astatic Silver Eagle power mike I was pretty careful about not overmodulating. I built several antennas, including a four element quad that eventually came down in spectacular fashion during a big storm. I never did run an external amplifier but eventually found an old Heathkit 100W radio that I modified to work on 11 meters. Sure, I was breaking numerous laws by modifying my own radio without a license, running a station over the maximum power limit, using frequencies outside the legal band, and communication with stations more than 150 miles but I guess I sort of justified it because I wasn't trying to be disruptive. There was actually somewhat of a subculture that would hang out in the higher frequencies, shoot skip, or just talk with other operators beyond the 150 mile limit, but felt like how everyone was running their stations and the language being used (Q codes instead of 10 codes) was much like 10 meter ham radio. I did end up talking with someone in ever U.S. State (and had the QSL cards to prove it) and quite a few different countries.

2.6k · January 26, 2012

Hmm confession is good for the soul Siltronix 1011D 11 meter band jumped for 11 meter transmit, 10 meter coil jumped with I forget what size picofared cap but it dropped the 10 meter band into the upper 11 meter band.

The rig would go from 26.9 something into the lower 10 meter band, man talk about some quiet chats on ssb and way nicer then the AM side

Before that a Midland 880 with a 20 kc slider 23 channel with all the a & b channels and can't forget the old Johnson 350 slightly modified

14k · January 27, 2012

Hmm confession is good for the soul Siltronix 1011D 11 meter band jumped for 11 meter transmit, 10 meter coil jumped with I forget what size picofared cap but it dropped the 10 meter band into the upper 11 meter band.

The rig would go from 26.9 something into the lower 10 meter band, man talk about some quiet chats on ssb and way nicer then the AM side

Before that a Midland 880 with a 20 kc slider 23 channel with all the a & b channels and can't forget the old Johnson 350 slightly modified

That Siltronix 1011D was popular amongst us rebels. My first radio was actually a "Kraco" brand that wss essentially identical to one of the Midland 23 channel SSB models. Of course, I had the well marked up SAM's manual and schematics for it.

I used to attend a few CB Radio meetups, which actually felt a lot like some of the Geocaching events I've attended.

7.3k · January 28, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

1.9k · January 29, 2012

http://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer-blocker.html

Wow, paranoid much? :blink:

1.9k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

They have a whole street of them in Seattle... :lol:

14k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

They have a whole street of them in Seattle...

Huh? Must be an inside joke.

7.3k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

They have a whole street of them in Seattle...

Huh? Must be an inside joke.

There's a main street that goes through Seattle, named Aurora. :rolleyes:

5.7k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

I have saw the Southern auroras about three times in my life. The sky turns red over the mountain tops, I first thought it was a major wild fire on the other side of the mountain.

7.3k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

I have saw the Southern auroras about three times in my life. The sky turns red over the mountain tops, I first thought it was a major wild fire on the other side of the mountain.

I've seen a few here and there. But I don't think I've seen one for about 16 years.

7.7k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

I don't know, doesn't seem like much to look at...

7.3k · January 29, 2012

Well, I've been keeping my eye out for auroras, but haven't seen any.

I don't know, doesn't seem like much to look at...

You're right.

Big solar radiation storm heading our way

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